WASHINGTON—For all the drama surrounding the testimony that military and diplomatic leaders will deliver to Congress this week about the war in Iraq, the real show will play out afterward, as the White House and Democratic congressional leaders vie for control over when the U.S. will start scaling back its forces there.
President Bush has repeatedly hinted that once Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker make their cases in congressional hearings Monday and Tuesday—they are expected to say the current troop "surge" is making Iraq safer—the president may be able to discuss bringing some troops home.
Planning a national address this week, Bush has promised to "lay out a vision for future involvement in Iraq" that the public "and their elected leaders of both parties can support."
President Bush has repeatedly hinted that once Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker make their cases in congressional hearings Monday and Tuesday—they are expected to say the current troop "surge" is making Iraq safer—the president may be able to discuss bringing some troops home.
Planning a national address this week, Bush has promised to "lay out a vision for future involvement in Iraq" that the public "and their elected leaders of both parties can support."
Democratic leaders, supported by some military experts, insist that because of the strains on the military from the escalation of forces and the extended deployments of soldiers and Marines, some scale-back is inevitable by spring. Democrats also say that, for all the resistance that Republican leaders are showing to a timeline for withdrawal at this stage, the closer they get to the elections of November 2008, the happier they will be to see a reduced U.S. presence in Iraq.
Some GOP converts
With Congress facing a rush of reports this month reflecting mixed progress in Iraq's bid to gain control over its security—and even less movement toward political reconciliation — Democratic leaders plan to push for a firm withdrawal timeline.
Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, said some Republicans already are moving in that direction and suggested that the negotiations will be mostly over the speed of the de-escalation.
"They may say 5,000, we may say 25,000; they may say X date, we may say Y date," Emanuel said. "But those are details."
He added, "I won't be surprised if [the withdrawal] doesn't start in 2007, but I think it is going to start to happen in short order."
Bush and his supporters have long resisted a withdrawal timeline, saying that would set a "surrender date" and embolden the insurgents.
But last week the president, citing recent meetings with Petraeus and Crocker in Iraq, told reporters with him in Iraq's Anbar province that he can envision a smaller force there.
"They told me that if ... security conditions still improve the way they have been improving ... we may be able to provide the same security with fewer troops," Bush said.
Congress set a deadline of Sept. 15 to receive Petraeus' report, prompting a spate of other evaluations on progress in Iraq, some official and some not. But the judgment of Petraeus and Crocker is attracting the most attention.
In the end, Congress is likely to produce a compromise that marries the political and military realities in Iraq with the politics of an unpopular war at home.
Some lawmakers are promoting a bill to implement the recommendations of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, which said U.S. combat forces should start to withdraw early next year and serve primarily as training and support for Iraqi forces. Others suggest linking any continued war funding to a 15-month cap on individual troop deployments, effectively forcing the military to scale back in the spring.
Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, said some Republicans already are moving in that direction and suggested that the negotiations will be mostly over the speed of the de-escalation.
"They may say 5,000, we may say 25,000; they may say X date, we may say Y date," Emanuel said. "But those are details."
He added, "I won't be surprised if [the withdrawal] doesn't start in 2007, but I think it is going to start to happen in short order."
Bush and his supporters have long resisted a withdrawal timeline, saying that would set a "surrender date" and embolden the insurgents.
But last week the president, citing recent meetings with Petraeus and Crocker in Iraq, told reporters with him in Iraq's Anbar province that he can envision a smaller force there.
"They told me that if ... security conditions still improve the way they have been improving ... we may be able to provide the same security with fewer troops," Bush said.
Congress set a deadline of Sept. 15 to receive Petraeus' report, prompting a spate of other evaluations on progress in Iraq, some official and some not. But the judgment of Petraeus and Crocker is attracting the most attention.
In the end, Congress is likely to produce a compromise that marries the political and military realities in Iraq with the politics of an unpopular war at home.
Some lawmakers are promoting a bill to implement the recommendations of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, which said U.S. combat forces should start to withdraw early next year and serve primarily as training and support for Iraqi forces. Others suggest linking any continued war funding to a 15-month cap on individual troop deployments, effectively forcing the military to scale back in the spring.
Artificial deadline
Some analysts note that the Sept. 15 deadline is artificial.
"The truth is that Sept. 15 is going to come and go," said Anthony Cordesman, senior fellow and military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "And it's going to be Sept. 20 and beyond, and a lot of the problems in the surge are going to become more apparent, and the lack of political reconciliation."
The other key date, perhaps, is Nov. 4, 2008—Election Day in the United States. As that date approaches, many Democrats believe Republicans will face growing pressure to support a significant troop withdrawal.
The security gains since the U.S. boosted its presence in Iraq by nearly 30,000 troops to 160,000 this year vary by region, experts say. But even the administration, which insists the military improvement has been significant, acknowledges little progress in restoring political stability in Iraq. Iraqi leaders have failed to reconcile warring religious factions inside police forces, as well as on the streets.
The U.S. Government Accountability Office reported recently that Iraq had failed to reach most of the 18 milestones set by Congress.
Source : www.chicagotribune.com
"The truth is that Sept. 15 is going to come and go," said Anthony Cordesman, senior fellow and military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "And it's going to be Sept. 20 and beyond, and a lot of the problems in the surge are going to become more apparent, and the lack of political reconciliation."
The other key date, perhaps, is Nov. 4, 2008—Election Day in the United States. As that date approaches, many Democrats believe Republicans will face growing pressure to support a significant troop withdrawal.
The security gains since the U.S. boosted its presence in Iraq by nearly 30,000 troops to 160,000 this year vary by region, experts say. But even the administration, which insists the military improvement has been significant, acknowledges little progress in restoring political stability in Iraq. Iraqi leaders have failed to reconcile warring religious factions inside police forces, as well as on the streets.
The U.S. Government Accountability Office reported recently that Iraq had failed to reach most of the 18 milestones set by Congress.
Source : www.chicagotribune.com
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